Family caregiving in context - Stats Can - 2023 12 05

 


Looking at one set of numbers from Stats Canada on age and population as of 2022. 

Statistics Canada. “Population Estimates on July 1st, by Age and Sex.” Government of Canada. Accessed December 4, 2023. https://doi.org/10.25318/1710000501-ENG.

Statistics Canada reports the data in increments of 5 years of age - ie. 0 to 4 years, 5 to 9 years, etc. through to 100 plus is the final age group.

PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION INCREASE 2018 to 2022
I wanted to understand the relationship between population increase in young dependents (children who cannot fend for themselves through to young adults who are supported by family to get an education, training, etc.); population increase in young, middle and older adults who are supporting children, supporting households, and possibly supporting frail elders; and population increase of elder adults who are aging out of the workforce and maybe experiencing some degree of frailty, that they are no longer able to fend for themselves and they need family or friends to help them maintain health and independence to some degree.

What stood out for me was the rate of increase over the last 5 years of these three groups. The youngest group, Young Dependent, they are going to be entering the workforce and prime years of earning in roughly 20 years. This population group only increased 1.52%, half the increase in the Earning Years group. This means that the number of Earning Years group, who will age into the Elderly Dependent group, will be supported by a population that is currently increasing at less than half the rate that the Earning Years group. The Earning Years group are going to find themselves with less population to support them when they age into the Elderly Dependent group.

However, more striking that the relationship between population growth between Young Dependent and Earning Years groups was the percentage of increase in the Elderly Dependent group. This group increased in population at a rate of five times the Earning Years group. There is a 1:5 ratio of increase between these two groups. Who is going to provide support to the Elderly Dependent group? How many Elderly Dependents are the Earning Years group members going to be able to support?

This is a trend of increase that needs to be understood by every family caregiver, and every family in Canada. There is no magic safety net here to provide supports to our Elderly Dependent group. The work is going to fall on families and that work is going to cost.

PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION AS OF 2022
The other stand out statistics for me from this report, when divided into a reasonable earnings lifespan for any single Canadian, is the current distribution of work to support Young Dependents and Elderly Dependents. 

At present, the population of Young Dependents and Elderly Dependents comprise 40% of the the overall population in Canada. The Earning Years population group is approximately 60% of population in Canada. That means that 60% of Canadians are supporting 40% of young and elderly Canadians. Out of 10 Canadians, 6 of the earning group are supporting 4 of the young and elderly.

I'm just thinking of this from a staffing, resourcing perspective. Those 6 in the earning group are supporting themselves, and ensuring the health and well being of four others. I wonder what the staffing ratio is in a hospital? How many nurses, nurses aides, housekeeping, grounds, transportation, mechanical, technological, administrative are employed to care for 1 patient? For 4 patients? For 10 patients? What if we looked at a daycare, an elementary school, a high school, a long term care facility? A memory facility? 

How many people in their earning years does it take to support a young dependent or an elderly dependent? 

This 60/40 ratio does not look sustainable to me. Those 60% of the population in their earning years are going to need to be very well organized and sustainable resourced to ensure they are not overstretched and then pushed into socio-economic frailty themselves.

These are the conversations we need to be having to prepare ourselves for the population requirements we are facing and are only going to increase in intensity over the coming years.

Am I wrong about this?

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